There isn’t much missing from this Broncos roster.
Thanks to FaxGate, there is a void at defensive end. What to do post-Elvis?
Wrote a column on the Dumervil situation for Thursday’s Gazette. Here a few notes that didn’t make it in the column. I sought out some advanced-metrics specialists to take a closer look at the situation.
Dumervil had 12 sacks last season. From 2000-2011, 34 teams lost a player (either through release, trade or retirement) who had eight or more sacks. Their sack numbers, on average, dropped from 40.7 sacks (with the player) to 34.9 (the next season, without him).
Four of those 34 teams replaced an eight-sack player with another eight-sack player. The Broncos had two of those teams. On one occasion, their sack numbers decreased. On the other occasion, their sack numbers actually increased. That info comes from Aaron Schatz, president of the excellent FootballOutsiders.com.
Another note that I found interesting comes from Sam Mason, a senior analyst with ProFootballFocus.com, another personal favorite. Sam Mason compared the numbers of five elite pass rushers from last season — to compare Dumervil’s value with others of his ilk.
Dumervil had a pass rushing productivity (P.R.P.) rating of 9.8. Abraham’s was slightly higher at 10.7.
Dwight Freeney (8.8), Osi Umenyiora (8.6) and Shaun Phillips (7.8) were slightly lower.
You can see I’m a believer in advanced metrics while analyzing the value of a player.
You can also see, if the Broncos want to and are able to sign Abraham or Freeney to “replace” Dumervil, there may not be a step back in terms of production. Especially in the case of Abraham.
In regards to Freeney, who knows how much his sub-standard season in 2012 was the result of a bum ankle. As Mason told me, the team that lands Freeney could be getting a better value than we think.
Just a few thoughts on one of the more bizarre developments we’ve witnessed with the Broncos.